This incident, the sabotage, could it have been stopped by the US? Did the Russians know it was coming also, and could they have stopped it?
Would it have been wrong for CIA to inform the Russians of the planned sabotage if the Russians didn't already know it was planned.
It gets to what is right and wrong and what is comparable to what destruction Russians have done to the western similar business ventures of this same scale.
This is serious moral stuff to really lay out, what's recent history, and who on the Russian side have the moral power to refrain from their past patterns of destruction, invading the Ukraine was wholly a wrong move, and Russians who couldn't control Putin not to invade Ukraine, for one, are on the wrong side of history.
(I foolishly polyannishly thought Putin's "reign" as he took over in the early 2000s, that he might demilitarize Russia, just demilitarize, and the world would be different today. The most serious human issue is why the "power" country Russia, and China, why they just don't demilitarize! That would be human advance, worldwide! Countries who demilitarize need some kind of wider human incentivizing as the long game strategy to defuse all the soverign countries with nuclear weapons. The world needs some kind of swords to ploughshares long range moral strategic young thinkers come along and get traction to change this deadly militarization trend this last century. Voluntary sovereign nation demilitarization, by those countries rattling their swords, when they ought be going swords to ploughshares. Is there some US ivy league universities or other universities in the US or worldwide trying to lay out humanity's patterns such to young minds learning how to defuse and demilitarize their countries? Education, and laying out the big factors, to accomplish this. I'd love to hear which are the best think tanks worldwide and thinkers on this.)
Listened to it but unconvinced. Harris—a firm believer that UFOs are alien spaceships—always sounds authoritative and plausible. And so, so certain. But, like his UFO fixation, this is a house of cards. His story ignores the impracticality of diving at depth from a small yacht and of constructing, let alone laying, large charges from the cockpit of such a small boat. It also ignores the voluminous OSINT data and images that show intense activity by Russian naval vessels (including the kind of specialist dive ships required for this kind of operation) over the locations of both pipeline blasts in the days beforehand. Unlike Harris' yacht, the Danish Navy actually photographed this activity on site.
If Harris and his co-authors had talked to professional divers and demolition experts they might have got some clarity on how far-fetched this story is, but they didn't. Just like the Roswell alien autopsy yarn, which was captivating until some journalists finally scratched the surface and found it was pure BS, this too should be viewed with skepticism. There are many competing Nord Stream narratives and, on the basis of hard evidence instead of whispers, this is less likely to be true than others. Harris, the WP, and Der Spiegel don't even appear to have investigated if these Ukrainians were up to something more plausible like smuggling. It's as if they're so enchanted with this story that they've never heard of Occam's Razor. Ask yourself who you know of in this war who has a decades-long track record of using 'useful idiots' to spread compelling but misleading narratives?
Good overviews of the hard evidence dug up by OSINT investigators can be found here:
Danish Defence Command Confirms Russian Minisub Equipped SS-750 at Site of Nord Stream Blasts 4 Days Prior
And then there's the 'Cold Front' podcast. This is a collaboration between journalists from Denmark, Norway and Sweden. It is classic open-minded journalism, chasing down leads and then applying skepticism instead of credulity. It's not 'Der Spiegel' 'The Washington Post', 'The Intercept', or (sigh) Seymour Hersh, and it's all the better for it.
Episode 3 is about the Nord Stream (this is the correct spelling btw) sabotage.
Jeff, interviewing some of the 'Cold Front' team about what they uncovered might make a fascinating non-Beltway insider episode. I think you'd appreciate the legwork and patience that went into their work.
I am New to SPYTALK and with interest I listened carefully to this Podcast
on the Nord Stream Pipeline conducted by Mr. Stein who I think knows
who blew up the Nord Pipeline. "Plausible denial is the mother’s milk of covert operations."
I will comment this time as to my professional background trained at
Submarine Base Bangor starting in Cold War Days in 1983. Furthermore I received
additional training at Naval Undersea Warefare Station Keyport and also Puget Sound
Naval Shipyard. Also I was on the Threat Detection Team that analzed data from the Ohio Class
Submarines. As an engineer I have work on-board the Ohio, Michigan and Florida back in the day and later I designed Sonar for a defense Contractor in California. That said here are my 2 cents propably
worth one cent today. First Britain, the US and Russia knows exactly who blew up the Nord Pipeline
because that area is highly monitored by them. Second, as stated by some and known by anyone working with the US Navy and special operations blowing up the Nord pipeline at depths of 250 feet is rather difficult. There are only a few countries that can pull this off and we all know who they are. That said the focus is on the US Navy and those highly skilled for these operations. It would obviosely be done with contractors to keep it directly out of the US Government hands and as Mr. Stein has so accurately stated "Plausible Denial." Over the last 15 years, accoustics has really advanced with the high speed aqquisition of data and the subsequent analysis of data which we did by "pick and shovel" back in the day. You can read about High-Speed-Threat-Detection here > https://www.navysbir.com/n19_1/N191-036.htm "Big Data Tools for High-speed Threat Detection and Classification" We know exaclty who blew up the Nordstream Pipeline and so does Russia.
Oh I am still waiting for a real story in SPY-ing here in the USA. Happy Thanksgiving to all.
I don't have your military experience but I have worked at 50m plus on mixed gas and CCRs in the North Sea and elsewhere. I'd really appreciate your take what I see as the implausibility of conducting an operation like this on two sites without a diving step, impellers to maintain position, an open stern deck for prep and so on. None of which 'Andromeda' is equipped with. Yet a small fleet of specialist dive support veseels was observed near the blast sites in the days beforehand. With nav transponders switched off. Oh, and they just happen to have been Russian.
Could you take a look at these images of the Andromeda and give your input on how suitable it would be for such a challenging operation. Taking into account the small mountain of diving gear that would fill most cabin space, would it be possible to assemble not one but four 100kg waterproof charges in such cramped conditions?
Yes, I could not imagine a worse platform to operate off than a yacht such as a Bavaria 50. No professional diver I know would either. It's amateur hour stuff, but then there's always the saying that; "If it's stupid and it works, it's still stupid and you're just plain lucky". But to stick with this hypothesis you have to wilfully ignore all the hard evidence gathered by OSINT researchers.
Interesting read.
This incident, the sabotage, could it have been stopped by the US? Did the Russians know it was coming also, and could they have stopped it?
Would it have been wrong for CIA to inform the Russians of the planned sabotage if the Russians didn't already know it was planned.
It gets to what is right and wrong and what is comparable to what destruction Russians have done to the western similar business ventures of this same scale.
This is serious moral stuff to really lay out, what's recent history, and who on the Russian side have the moral power to refrain from their past patterns of destruction, invading the Ukraine was wholly a wrong move, and Russians who couldn't control Putin not to invade Ukraine, for one, are on the wrong side of history.
(I foolishly polyannishly thought Putin's "reign" as he took over in the early 2000s, that he might demilitarize Russia, just demilitarize, and the world would be different today. The most serious human issue is why the "power" country Russia, and China, why they just don't demilitarize! That would be human advance, worldwide! Countries who demilitarize need some kind of wider human incentivizing as the long game strategy to defuse all the soverign countries with nuclear weapons. The world needs some kind of swords to ploughshares long range moral strategic young thinkers come along and get traction to change this deadly militarization trend this last century. Voluntary sovereign nation demilitarization, by those countries rattling their swords, when they ought be going swords to ploughshares. Is there some US ivy league universities or other universities in the US or worldwide trying to lay out humanity's patterns such to young minds learning how to defuse and demilitarize their countries? Education, and laying out the big factors, to accomplish this. I'd love to hear which are the best think tanks worldwide and thinkers on this.)
Listened to it but unconvinced. Harris—a firm believer that UFOs are alien spaceships—always sounds authoritative and plausible. And so, so certain. But, like his UFO fixation, this is a house of cards. His story ignores the impracticality of diving at depth from a small yacht and of constructing, let alone laying, large charges from the cockpit of such a small boat. It also ignores the voluminous OSINT data and images that show intense activity by Russian naval vessels (including the kind of specialist dive ships required for this kind of operation) over the locations of both pipeline blasts in the days beforehand. Unlike Harris' yacht, the Danish Navy actually photographed this activity on site.
If Harris and his co-authors had talked to professional divers and demolition experts they might have got some clarity on how far-fetched this story is, but they didn't. Just like the Roswell alien autopsy yarn, which was captivating until some journalists finally scratched the surface and found it was pure BS, this too should be viewed with skepticism. There are many competing Nord Stream narratives and, on the basis of hard evidence instead of whispers, this is less likely to be true than others. Harris, the WP, and Der Spiegel don't even appear to have investigated if these Ukrainians were up to something more plausible like smuggling. It's as if they're so enchanted with this story that they've never heard of Occam's Razor. Ask yourself who you know of in this war who has a decades-long track record of using 'useful idiots' to spread compelling but misleading narratives?
Good overviews of the hard evidence dug up by OSINT investigators can be found here:
Danish Defence Command Confirms Russian Minisub Equipped SS-750 at Site of Nord Stream Blasts 4 Days Prior
https://oalexanderdk.substack.com/p/danish-defence-command-confirms-russian
OSINT Analysis: Six Russian Ships Active Near Nord Stream Sabotage Site
https://oalexanderdk.substack.com/p/osint-analysis-six-russian-ships
And then there's the 'Cold Front' podcast. This is a collaboration between journalists from Denmark, Norway and Sweden. It is classic open-minded journalism, chasing down leads and then applying skepticism instead of credulity. It's not 'Der Spiegel' 'The Washington Post', 'The Intercept', or (sigh) Seymour Hersh, and it's all the better for it.
Episode 3 is about the Nord Stream (this is the correct spelling btw) sabotage.
https://www.dr.dk/lyd/p1/cold-front-4531249153000
You can also find 'Cold Front' on the main podcast services, for example:
https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/cold-front/id1683166185
Jeff, interviewing some of the 'Cold Front' team about what they uncovered might make a fascinating non-Beltway insider episode. I think you'd appreciate the legwork and patience that went into their work.
I am New to SPYTALK and with interest I listened carefully to this Podcast
on the Nord Stream Pipeline conducted by Mr. Stein who I think knows
who blew up the Nord Pipeline. "Plausible denial is the mother’s milk of covert operations."
I will comment this time as to my professional background trained at
Submarine Base Bangor starting in Cold War Days in 1983. Furthermore I received
additional training at Naval Undersea Warefare Station Keyport and also Puget Sound
Naval Shipyard. Also I was on the Threat Detection Team that analzed data from the Ohio Class
Submarines. As an engineer I have work on-board the Ohio, Michigan and Florida back in the day and later I designed Sonar for a defense Contractor in California. That said here are my 2 cents propably
worth one cent today. First Britain, the US and Russia knows exactly who blew up the Nord Pipeline
because that area is highly monitored by them. Second, as stated by some and known by anyone working with the US Navy and special operations blowing up the Nord pipeline at depths of 250 feet is rather difficult. There are only a few countries that can pull this off and we all know who they are. That said the focus is on the US Navy and those highly skilled for these operations. It would obviosely be done with contractors to keep it directly out of the US Government hands and as Mr. Stein has so accurately stated "Plausible Denial." Over the last 15 years, accoustics has really advanced with the high speed aqquisition of data and the subsequent analysis of data which we did by "pick and shovel" back in the day. You can read about High-Speed-Threat-Detection here > https://www.navysbir.com/n19_1/N191-036.htm "Big Data Tools for High-speed Threat Detection and Classification" We know exaclty who blew up the Nordstream Pipeline and so does Russia.
Oh I am still waiting for a real story in SPY-ing here in the USA. Happy Thanksgiving to all.
Hi Howard,
I don't have your military experience but I have worked at 50m plus on mixed gas and CCRs in the North Sea and elsewhere. I'd really appreciate your take what I see as the implausibility of conducting an operation like this on two sites without a diving step, impellers to maintain position, an open stern deck for prep and so on. None of which 'Andromeda' is equipped with. Yet a small fleet of specialist dive support veseels was observed near the blast sites in the days beforehand. With nav transponders switched off. Oh, and they just happen to have been Russian.
Could you take a look at these images of the Andromeda and give your input on how suitable it would be for such a challenging operation. Taking into account the small mountain of diving gear that would fill most cabin space, would it be possible to assemble not one but four 100kg waterproof charges in such cramped conditions?
https://www.gettyimages.co.uk/detail/news-photo/the-kitchen-area-and-table-stand-inside-the-andromeda-a-50-news-photo/1474161670
Hi Martin, yes I looked at the photo of that sailing ship. For one I would not get on that
"boat" to undertake a highly sensitive naval dive operation where I was risking my life.
Also trained navy have back-up systems, personnel and equipment in case something goes
wrong. There is no way an operation like Nord Demolition would be done on that boat
by trained navy who would be risking thier lives. Not withstanding that as stated in my
post US, Britain and Russia know exactly who blew up Nord. It is one of those three and
from my naval training and family who were in the Navy my focus is on trained US Navy
people who are some of the best out there. Especially in underwater warefare including
diving, demolition and countermeasures.
Yes, I could not imagine a worse platform to operate off than a yacht such as a Bavaria 50. No professional diver I know would either. It's amateur hour stuff, but then there's always the saying that; "If it's stupid and it works, it's still stupid and you're just plain lucky". But to stick with this hypothesis you have to wilfully ignore all the hard evidence gathered by OSINT researchers.
I personally have no idea who blew up the pipeline, Mr. Walther. The SpyTalk podcast featured Shane Harris’s reporting.
Hi Martin, Yes I will look at this carefully. Another interesting part of my career up at
Bangor is alot of us got together and trained on base running on the back trails and
training in the great rec center on the base, in paticular the pool, also used for dive
training. I met marines, some special forces, of course the submariners there and also
later trained with them including Navy Seals, under water demolition experts ..... all great people.
The operation required to blow Nord in that area is interesting but when it happened
I think everyone knew what, where and who. To get in/out quickly is the key, not easy
when diving at that depth. Howard Walther, Santa Barbara CA
Hello Martin, yes no one trained in the US Navy would get on
that saiing boat for a demolition operation because you are risking your life.
Howard