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Good man. I have to say I saw the Russian fuck-ups from day one -- an early ambush by Ukrainians they captured on their cell phones that hit YouTube. They were doing exactly what they should do: they crippled a few APC's, concealed themselves behind a wall, used their best guy to shoot all the RPG-7 rounds they fired at the Russians. A squad of other Ukrainians just kept reloading RPG's and handing them up to the shooter. It was like a carnival midway game, shooting ducks as they pass by. And their convoy discipline was non-existent. I blew up satellite shots on my computer that showed the infamous 40 K convoy and counted vehicles just in one photo and came up with more than 100, bumper to bumper -- combat vehicles like APC's, interspersed with supply trucks and fuel trucks. The Ukrainians sneaked up on them through trees on either side of the road and picked them off.

Within a couple of months, that whole offensive that started in Belarus was on its way back across the Russian and Belarus border. I can only imagine what the infantry units are like on the platoon and squad level, with company commanders and battalion commanders who basically paid someone off to get their jobs, and every private and corporal in the ranks fully aware of the rampant corruption going on in the ranks above them.. Incredible.

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Oct 27, 2022·edited Nov 11, 2022Author

Thanks much, Lucian. Such a valuable comment. It inspired me to add a graf touching on this high up.

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Very interesting article.

So, is the US also overestimating the strength of China’s PLA troops - just like it did with the Soviet Union?

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Good question. You might be interested in this SpyTalk podcast on the subject of the quality of US intelligence on China. https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/broken/id1560016782?i=1000566618314

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Thanks. I will definitely listen to it.

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This seems like an overbroad generalization from a decidedly biased source. Remember that Russia suffered a million casualties at the beginning of the German invasion partly due to Stalin wiping out the officer corps during the purges of the 1930s. Never the less , they persevered and fought through to final victory taking 20 million dead (civilian and military) along the way. Loses to date are trivial. Remember that the Brits had 60,000 casualties with 20,000 dead in one day at the beginning of the battle of the Somme.

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