An IDF spokesman said last night that though initially Hamas got all its advanced missiles from Iran it also benefited from the corresponding technology and now makes its own missiles by itself. I will add however that Hamas cannot replicate, for instance, relatively advanced electronic components. These however are mostly dual use and can be bought anywhere. Their small size makes theit
smuggling into Gaza not that difficult. Reprogramming components like EEPROMs is something any computer nerd can master easily. This explains statements by the US and now even Israel that evidence of direct Iranian involvement in the Hamas onslaught has not yet been established (ok; absence of evidence is not evidence of absence..)
The Article Lead should be "How did Israel and US Intelligence Miss Hamas Preparation for this Large Attack on Israel?" Israel and our Intelligence monitors everthing so how did this Miss happen or did
Israel's failure to detect ground level preparations by Hamas, including the stockpiling of arms and rockets, merely underscores the obvious: its fatal reliance on sigint and photint, all sophisticated arms- length stuff, and its dearth of living, breathing assets on the ground. It is a fatal imbalancce that often plagues technologically blessed societies pitted against adversaries operating at dirt level, with a cannniness born of deprivation. The Viet Cong provided early advance warning.
As Mr. Broder stated "When Hamas launched its invasion last weekend, Israeli military commanders maintained only three companies of troops along the Gaza Strip's 32-mile border with Israel. And many of those troops were women whose assignment was to monitor the sensors along the border fence for signs of intrusion." "But the relatively weak Israeli defenses above ground allowed Hamas to crash through the border fence with bulldozers at 22 different points, opening the way for hundreds of its fighters to pour into Israeli territory and attack the nearby kibbutzim and towns."
Another major continuation of the War that never stopped.
There is also a point to be made about the evident failure of Israel's intelligence analysts to put together the dots with the information they had in hand. It seems axiomatic to me as an old intelligence assessor that when commanders and spymasters have every imaginable bell, whistle and hellfire missile at their disposal, and an arrogance driven by superior resources and and proven ability to dominate the battlefield, they become incapable of thinking like - and thus outthinking an adversary whose last best hope is a suicide vest stitched together in a hovel, or a nest of punji sticks left poking up through the jungle floor near a seemingly pacified vil.
New to SPYTALK, I read Mr. Snepp's reply below however the HAMAS Attack was either a HUGE Failure to detect or the Intelligence Agencies knew and did not act. Either way it is horrendous. I read Mr. Snepp's Background which is very interesting so he of all people would know of this HUGE Failure, or not, by the Intelligence Agencies. Howard Walther, Santa Barbara CA
Oct 22, 2023·edited Oct 23, 2023Liked by Jonathan Broder
For those who are interested in what "amateurs" can do with rockets, there is a pretty lively "high power rocket" community in the US (and elsewhere). I'm a bit surprised by the size and energy of commercial (solid) rocket motors that I can legally buy. I've built a fairly low performance rocket that went 9000' straight up, hit Mach 1.5 on the way up, and reached apogee in about 25 seconds --- and it was entirely legal for me to do so. If I'd wanted to build a higher performance rocket (something called a "minimum diameter" rocket), that 9000' rocket would have done closer to 15,000 ft and Mach 2.
There are plenty of recipes out there for rocket motors that can be made from widely available ingredients. Do a google search for "rocket candy" sometime if you're curious.
In my opinion, adding the guidance system requires more sophistication than building the motor, although lord knows it is getting easier with all the cheap servos and accelerometers/gyros available today.
I should add that it is acceptable to *stabilize* an amateur rocket with servos, but once you start trying to guide a rocket (i.e. towards a target) then you'll get in trouble with the feds.
An IDF spokesman said last night that though initially Hamas got all its advanced missiles from Iran it also benefited from the corresponding technology and now makes its own missiles by itself. I will add however that Hamas cannot replicate, for instance, relatively advanced electronic components. These however are mostly dual use and can be bought anywhere. Their small size makes theit
smuggling into Gaza not that difficult. Reprogramming components like EEPROMs is something any computer nerd can master easily. This explains statements by the US and now even Israel that evidence of direct Iranian involvement in the Hamas onslaught has not yet been established (ok; absence of evidence is not evidence of absence..)
New To SPYTALK,
From the Article:
" By mid-morning, the militants had fired a total of some 2,500 projectiles that quickly overwhelmed Israel’s Iron Dome air defense system." From WA Post Hamas allegedly received prepatory traning from Iran. https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/10/09/iran-support-hamas-training-weapons-israel/
The Article Lead should be "How did Israel and US Intelligence Miss Hamas Preparation for this Large Attack on Israel?" Israel and our Intelligence monitors everthing so how did this Miss happen or did
everyone know it was coming?
Howard Walther, Santa Barbara CA
Israel's failure to detect ground level preparations by Hamas, including the stockpiling of arms and rockets, merely underscores the obvious: its fatal reliance on sigint and photint, all sophisticated arms- length stuff, and its dearth of living, breathing assets on the ground. It is a fatal imbalancce that often plagues technologically blessed societies pitted against adversaries operating at dirt level, with a cannniness born of deprivation. The Viet Cong provided early advance warning.
New to SPYTALK,
The answer just provided by Frank Snepp " its dearth of living, breathing assets on the ground..."
in short, Human Intelligence which we are in short supply but it does me surprise Israel also.
Howard Walther, Santa Barbara CA
New to Spytalk,
As Mr. Broder stated "When Hamas launched its invasion last weekend, Israeli military commanders maintained only three companies of troops along the Gaza Strip's 32-mile border with Israel. And many of those troops were women whose assignment was to monitor the sensors along the border fence for signs of intrusion." "But the relatively weak Israeli defenses above ground allowed Hamas to crash through the border fence with bulldozers at 22 different points, opening the way for hundreds of its fighters to pour into Israeli territory and attack the nearby kibbutzim and towns."
Another major continuation of the War that never stopped.
Howard Walther, Santa Barbara CA
There is also a point to be made about the evident failure of Israel's intelligence analysts to put together the dots with the information they had in hand. It seems axiomatic to me as an old intelligence assessor that when commanders and spymasters have every imaginable bell, whistle and hellfire missile at their disposal, and an arrogance driven by superior resources and and proven ability to dominate the battlefield, they become incapable of thinking like - and thus outthinking an adversary whose last best hope is a suicide vest stitched together in a hovel, or a nest of punji sticks left poking up through the jungle floor near a seemingly pacified vil.
New to SPYTALK, I read Mr. Snepp's reply below however the HAMAS Attack was either a HUGE Failure to detect or the Intelligence Agencies knew and did not act. Either way it is horrendous. I read Mr. Snepp's Background which is very interesting so he of all people would know of this HUGE Failure, or not, by the Intelligence Agencies. Howard Walther, Santa Barbara CA
For those who are interested in what "amateurs" can do with rockets, there is a pretty lively "high power rocket" community in the US (and elsewhere). I'm a bit surprised by the size and energy of commercial (solid) rocket motors that I can legally buy. I've built a fairly low performance rocket that went 9000' straight up, hit Mach 1.5 on the way up, and reached apogee in about 25 seconds --- and it was entirely legal for me to do so. If I'd wanted to build a higher performance rocket (something called a "minimum diameter" rocket), that 9000' rocket would have done closer to 15,000 ft and Mach 2.
There are plenty of recipes out there for rocket motors that can be made from widely available ingredients. Do a google search for "rocket candy" sometime if you're curious.
In my opinion, adding the guidance system requires more sophistication than building the motor, although lord knows it is getting easier with all the cheap servos and accelerometers/gyros available today.
I should add that it is acceptable to *stabilize* an amateur rocket with servos, but once you start trying to guide a rocket (i.e. towards a target) then you'll get in trouble with the feds.