Prigozhin's Fort Sumter moment created images inimical to Putin's authority and seeming invincibility and leaves us wondering how he could have missed the warning signs. US intelligence has a potential goldmine in his thoroughly monitored defensive game, a moment by moment instant replay of Putin's responses and non-responses to the crisis that reveals the flaws in his fail safe systems.
“Progozhin’s Fort Sumter moment“ — perfect. Wish I’d thought of it. But this is some very astute analysis, Frank. Thank you. It’s a mystery why Prigozhin set out for Moscow without having the place wired for success, ie, allies ready to tumble for him. Or maybe they chickened out. Quite possible. Much more yet to be learned.
"It’s time to twist the blade." Perhaps. Or perhaps time to get nuclear talks back on track and to end the war in Ukraine and set us up for a comprehensive deal with China to take care of Taiwan and North Korea and even Syria. Let us make a deal - TIME.
The issue is what safeguards has been put in place for securing the nuclear warheads in the federated states which might seek independence? Ukraine surrendered its nuclear warheads with an assurance that Russian, Britain and the US would protect its sovereignty; on gaining independence, these states may not denuclearize considering Russian invasion of Ukraine and the assurance given did not include any commitment to the defense of Ukraine.
Thanks for your comment, but no, the issue is nuclear command and control in Russia. As you point out, Ukraine agreed to give up its nuclear weapons shortly after the dissolution of the Soviet Union.
During a dissolution, the nuclear command cannot be established for certain as competing elements of Russian military may render that command insecure.
Thank you, Nigel. In my rush to stay atop the rapidly evolving story out of Russia, my memory failed me. I've corrected my story to say Penkovsky supplied information on Soviet missiles that allowed the CIA to identify their presence in Cuba.
Jeff, that the FSB and GRU are pale shadows of their forebears appears to be one of the conclusions to draw from the weekend's farrago. If Moscow's spy agencies can't detect and forestall Wagner's mutiny then they are incompetent or playing a complex, murky long game. Either way, wouldn't they be untrustworthy sources? It so, how much worth could be attached to a FSB officer who, say, defects with details about Russia's intentions towards the Zaporzhizhia Nuclear Power Plant (something that worries me far more than issues over nuclear weapons)?
The worth of would-be moles or defectors is determined on a case-by-case basis. I agree that an insider with information on Russian intentions on Zaporzhizhia would be valuable. Meanwhile, I can't agree that the Prigozhin episode alone shows that "the FSB and GRU are pale shadows of their forebears." Some elements may have swung over to Prigozhin's side; more likely, they stayed neutral until the smoke cleared. Even more likely, Putin may have declined to test their loyalty, fearing they would refuse to fire on the Wagner Group troops.
Thanks, that makes sense. I was working off the assumption that the FSB/KGB of the Cold War era would have infiltrated Wagner and that the GRU would have noticed the pre-positioning of Wagner troops over the last few weeks. But I should have challenged my own assumption. As Bellingcat has shown time and again, there's little evidence they've ever been particularly efficient.
If there’s one thing a Russian leader cannot and will not tolerate it’s betrayal from within. Putin does not give a pass to traitors. Therefore, Prighozen is no traitor to Putin. My question is why all the smoke in mirror theatrics so intent on capturing the attention of the West and threading that narrative with all but a reality TV show about a rogue militia named after a Nazi apocalyptic war-music composer led by a former door-to-door hotdog salesman turned CEO of a private gun-toting para-military company staffed by convicts armed with grenades and fully automatic weapons for whom Prighozen mobilized via the emptying out of Russian prisons. Tolstoy, Chekhov and Dostoyevsky couldn’t have made up something so absurd if they collaborated to depict the ultimate nature of a more illusory reality. It just seems like Putin is trying to distract the West. Why? Like Churchill said about true intentions, The truth is so sacred it needs to be guarded by a body of lies. And Putin needs the element of surprise for something. But what? What else other than a coup for which he can’t refuse to deliver to old Russian babushkas and a domestic audience. And where else but in Belarus? Putin already staged troops and nukes in Belarus. And now he’s moving Wagner in as clandestinely as he can in order to set the stage for another attempt to Ultimately, it appears easier to assault Kiev from the north rather than the south.
Thank you, Nigel. In my rush to stay atop the rapidly evolving story out of Russia, my memory failed me. I've corrected my story to say Penkovsky supplied information on Soviet missiles that allowed the CIA to identify their presence in Cuba.
And Penkovsky likewise probably didn’t have any idea of the US Navy’s plan to surface his sub by deploying depth charges in front of, behind, and on the top and down both sides of his blockaded submarine.
For the moment, the fight is still on between Putin and Prigozhin and I, for one, don't even know what round it's in. Much more to come. What the CIA needs is volunteers, recruits, who can provide information on into the future rather than defectors, who can only tell us what has already happened. Useful, of course, but an active source is better. Remember that Putin and Prigozhin still have a lot in common, including that the US is the Main Enemy, as it was throughout the Cold War. These two thugs have never known a Russia when it was otherwise.
Prigozhin's Fort Sumter moment created images inimical to Putin's authority and seeming invincibility and leaves us wondering how he could have missed the warning signs. US intelligence has a potential goldmine in his thoroughly monitored defensive game, a moment by moment instant replay of Putin's responses and non-responses to the crisis that reveals the flaws in his fail safe systems.
“Progozhin’s Fort Sumter moment“ — perfect. Wish I’d thought of it. But this is some very astute analysis, Frank. Thank you. It’s a mystery why Prigozhin set out for Moscow without having the place wired for success, ie, allies ready to tumble for him. Or maybe they chickened out. Quite possible. Much more yet to be learned.
"It’s time to twist the blade." Perhaps. Or perhaps time to get nuclear talks back on track and to end the war in Ukraine and set us up for a comprehensive deal with China to take care of Taiwan and North Korea and even Syria. Let us make a deal - TIME.
The issue is what safeguards has been put in place for securing the nuclear warheads in the federated states which might seek independence? Ukraine surrendered its nuclear warheads with an assurance that Russian, Britain and the US would protect its sovereignty; on gaining independence, these states may not denuclearize considering Russian invasion of Ukraine and the assurance given did not include any commitment to the defense of Ukraine.
Thanks for your comment, but no, the issue is nuclear command and control in Russia. As you point out, Ukraine agreed to give up its nuclear weapons shortly after the dissolution of the Soviet Union.
During a dissolution, the nuclear command cannot be established for certain as competing elements of Russian military may render that command insecure.
Penkovsky never said a word about Cuba. He certainly didn't tip off anyone to the deployment of Soviet missiles!
Nigel West
Interesting. How much did he know that he could have revealed?
Thank you, Nigel. In my rush to stay atop the rapidly evolving story out of Russia, my memory failed me. I've corrected my story to say Penkovsky supplied information on Soviet missiles that allowed the CIA to identify their presence in Cuba.
Jeff, that the FSB and GRU are pale shadows of their forebears appears to be one of the conclusions to draw from the weekend's farrago. If Moscow's spy agencies can't detect and forestall Wagner's mutiny then they are incompetent or playing a complex, murky long game. Either way, wouldn't they be untrustworthy sources? It so, how much worth could be attached to a FSB officer who, say, defects with details about Russia's intentions towards the Zaporzhizhia Nuclear Power Plant (something that worries me far more than issues over nuclear weapons)?
Thanks for your comments, Martin. Always welcome.
The worth of would-be moles or defectors is determined on a case-by-case basis. I agree that an insider with information on Russian intentions on Zaporzhizhia would be valuable. Meanwhile, I can't agree that the Prigozhin episode alone shows that "the FSB and GRU are pale shadows of their forebears." Some elements may have swung over to Prigozhin's side; more likely, they stayed neutral until the smoke cleared. Even more likely, Putin may have declined to test their loyalty, fearing they would refuse to fire on the Wagner Group troops.
Thanks, that makes sense. I was working off the assumption that the FSB/KGB of the Cold War era would have infiltrated Wagner and that the GRU would have noticed the pre-positioning of Wagner troops over the last few weeks. But I should have challenged my own assumption. As Bellingcat has shown time and again, there's little evidence they've ever been particularly efficient.
If there’s one thing a Russian leader cannot and will not tolerate it’s betrayal from within. Putin does not give a pass to traitors. Therefore, Prighozen is no traitor to Putin. My question is why all the smoke in mirror theatrics so intent on capturing the attention of the West and threading that narrative with all but a reality TV show about a rogue militia named after a Nazi apocalyptic war-music composer led by a former door-to-door hotdog salesman turned CEO of a private gun-toting para-military company staffed by convicts armed with grenades and fully automatic weapons for whom Prighozen mobilized via the emptying out of Russian prisons. Tolstoy, Chekhov and Dostoyevsky couldn’t have made up something so absurd if they collaborated to depict the ultimate nature of a more illusory reality. It just seems like Putin is trying to distract the West. Why? Like Churchill said about true intentions, The truth is so sacred it needs to be guarded by a body of lies. And Putin needs the element of surprise for something. But what? What else other than a coup for which he can’t refuse to deliver to old Russian babushkas and a domestic audience. And where else but in Belarus? Putin already staged troops and nukes in Belarus. And now he’s moving Wagner in as clandestinely as he can in order to set the stage for another attempt to Ultimately, it appears easier to assault Kiev from the north rather than the south.
There is no evidence that Penkovsky had any idea of the Kremlin's plan to deploy missiles to Cuba.
Thank you, Nigel. In my rush to stay atop the rapidly evolving story out of Russia, my memory failed me. I've corrected my story to say Penkovsky supplied information on Soviet missiles that allowed the CIA to identify their presence in Cuba.
And Penkovsky likewise probably didn’t have any idea of the US Navy’s plan to surface his sub by deploying depth charges in front of, behind, and on the top and down both sides of his blockaded submarine.
For the moment, the fight is still on between Putin and Prigozhin and I, for one, don't even know what round it's in. Much more to come. What the CIA needs is volunteers, recruits, who can provide information on into the future rather than defectors, who can only tell us what has already happened. Useful, of course, but an active source is better. Remember that Putin and Prigozhin still have a lot in common, including that the US is the Main Enemy, as it was throughout the Cold War. These two thugs have never known a Russia when it was otherwise.
We are agreed!
Thx for reading.
Is the Putin-Prighozen spat just a distraction for Wagner to seize control of Belarus in a coup?