Trump Must Put ‘Extra Heat’ on Putin, Diplomat Who Knows the Russian says
‘You're going to have to stare down Putin at some point,” says Daniel Fried in the SpyTalk interview. He only understands force.
The attire may have been unusual. But the message was unmistakable.
When Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov showed up last week at the Alaska Summit between President Trump and Vladimir Putin, there was no shortage of double takes when onlookers noticed he was wearing a grey sweatshirt with the letters emblazoned on the front: “CCCP.”
That’s Russian for the USSR, the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics, whose demise, former KGB agent Putin has never gotten over. The sweatshirt was made, it turns out, by a Russian clothing firm that specializes in “Soviet heritage.”
What was Lavrov trying to convey with a sweatshirt that touted the name of America’s arch-nemesis in the Cold War?
“He was trolling us…and we should respond appropriately,” said Daniel Fried, the now retired, blunt-talking veteran diplomat who for years was regarded as one of the U.S. government’s premier experts on Putin’s Russia.
“You don’t have to take shit from these people,” Fried said on the SpyTalk podcast (available this weekend here, or wherever you like to listen). “They haven't earned it.”
Fried’s comments reflect the skepticism that many old Russia hands share about the events in Alaska and their aftermath. In the run-up to the summit, Trump had set a firm deadline: either Russia agrees to an immediate ceasefire in its war on Ukraine by last Friday or there would be “severe consequences.”
And then Trump punted in perhaps the most dizzying retreat by an American president since Barack Obama blinked after Syria’s Bashar Assad crossed his “red line” by using chemical weapons. After literally rolling out the red carpet and greeting the Russian dictator with a warm handshake, Trump abandoned his demands for a ceasefire and dropped any talk of deadlines.
Instead, he agreed to Putin’s insistence that the parties negotiate a permanent peace treaty— a process that, while giving Russia a free pass to continue its nightly missile barrage on Ukrainian cities, could drag on for months if not longer, thanks in part to comments by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, on the Sunday talk shows taking any talk of new financial sanctions against the Russians off the table.
“Seriously?” said Fried about the events in Alaska. “So Trump 48 hours ago was talking about more pressure. Then Putin stiffs Trump and his secretary of state says pressure is a bad idea. That's the kind of fatuous stuff from left-wing Democrats that Republicans used to make a meal of.”
There are few Americans who have had more experience in dealing with Putin and Lavrov through multiple administrations than Fried. A one time foreign officer in Russia, Fried served on Bill Clinton’s national security council and later as his ambassador to Poland. Returning to the White House, Fried was with President George W. Bush as a senior advisor when he first met with Putin in Slovenia in 2001 and famously said “I looked into his eyes and I saw a soul.”
But as Fried recalls it, Bush—who took much flak over those initial warm comments—was actually on to the Russian president’s autocratic ways far earlier than is commonly known. Fried was there again two years later when Bush flew to London to meet with then British Prime Minister Tony Blair, mainly to talk about the Iraq War. But when they started talking about Putin the mood was just as somber as the war talk.
“And this was not in their papers, I promise you,” Fried said. “They were in complete agreement that Putin was not the man we thought he was. They didn't like the oppression. They didn't like him going after free speech in Russia. And they were both shaking their heads.”
“You don’t have to take shit from these people,” Fried said on the SpyTalk podcast. “They haven't earned it.”
Capitulation
Today, Fried and many other veteran diplomats and intelligence officers are once again shaking their heads as they digest the slippery moves by Putin and his wily foreign minister in the days after the summit.
Trump’s negotiator Steve Witkoff had claimed last Sunday that there had been substantial progress towards peace because Putin had agreed as part of a theoretical final deal to security guarantees for Ukraine that would protect it from a foreign invasion similar to those in Article 5 of the NATO treaty alliance in which member states agree to treat an attack on any one of them as an attack on all of them.
This was followed the next day by a meeting at the White House with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and a parade of European leaders in a united-front show of support for the embattled nation.
But while Fried acknowledges that the White House meeting with Zelensky and the Europeans was “much better substantively and atmospherically,” it is far from clear what—if anything—the Russians have actually agreed to.
Even as Witkoff was touting his “security guarantees,” Lavrov seemed to throw a monkey wrench into the whole idea when he insisted that Russia, the country that invaded Ukraine, be a part of fashioning the security guarantees to protect it. “Seriously discussing issues of ensuring security without the Russian Federation is a utopia, a road to nowhere,” he told reporters in Moscow.
“A deal for Ukraine involves big issues, territory and security,” said Fried. “Security is the more important because without it, territory doesn’t matter. You can draw the line wherever you want.”
But as Lavrov’s remarks suggest, the idea of real security guarantees—with European troops on the ground backed by American air power—is likely not what he or Putin has in mind. The Russians “will probably say there is no deal with anything like this on the table,” said Fried. “Well, we shouldn’t have to ask their damn permission. Okay?”
Meanwhile, Putin has yet to agree to a face-to-face meeting with Zelensky to discuss a peace deal. In Fried’s view, nothing will happen unless Trump reverses course and starts imposing the kind of punishing sanctions he once was threatening.
“Well, let's try some extra heat,” said Fried. “Let's try using our assets. Take a whack at Russian income from the sale of oil—that’s basically propping up their economy. We can do something about that. Make sure we have a formula in place that provides a steady flow of American weapons to Ukraine that the American taxpayer doesn't have to pay for. Keep squeezing them.
“If that's what the Trump administration is willing to do, okay, can it work? And the answer is, yeah, it could work. But you're going to have to stare down Putin at some point. And you're not gonna stare him down by constantly backing off.”
Unfortunately, you can't expect a coward to "stare down" Putin. The man from Orange gets tough with people only on TV not in real life.
Refreshing frankness from Ambassador Fried.