New Year, New Intrigue

The secret services of Israel, Turkey, China, the U.S. and UAE vie for influence in Somaliland

Since October 7, 2023, a rivalry has been unfolding between Israel and Turkey that evokes the “Great Game,” the 19th-century struggle between Czarist Russia and Britain for control and influence in Afghanistan, Iran, and Central Asia. Then, as now, this rivalry involves espionage and intelligence gathering, diplomatic intrigue, proxy warfare, and military missions. The U.S. is on the verge of getting more involved.

Israel and Turkey are competing for influence in Gaza, Syria, and now also in the Horn of Africa. The latest expression of this contest is the decision by Israel’s government, led by Benjamin Netanyahu, to recognize Somaliland as an independent and sovereign state and to establish open relations with it, including the opening of diplomatic missions in Hargeisa and Tel Aviv.

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has for years pursued regional hegemony and sought to revive the glory days of the Ottoman Empire; Prime Minister Netanyahu is attempting to challenge him. Donald Trump, who claims friendship with both leaders, has to maneuver carefully between them.