New in SpyWeek: Israeli Miscalculation?

Updated: Israel airstrike on Iran, new details on FBI's Cuban spy trap, another military mole, Kremlin’s hybrid warfare on US, AI in intel leads the week.

Iranian missile drill in January (Iran army handout via AFP)

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Miscalculations: History is replete with intelligence miscalculations with immense consequences. The CIA’s failed Bay of Pigs invasion, 63 years ago this week, led to the Cuban missile crisis of 1962. The U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003 was based on a mistaken CIA finding that Saddam Hussein had WMD. 

The New York Times’ Ronen Bergman reported Thursday that Israeli leaders “badly miscalculated” the consequences of their April 1 airstrike on Iran’s embassy complex in Syria, “thinking that Iran would not react strongly.” Only one Israeli official apparently agreed with Bergman’s assessment, however, which was based on “multiple” U.S. officials who were angry that Israel didn’t consult them beforehand. 

Then came Iran’s unprecedented direct attack on Israel on April 12. 

"We’ve changed the equation against Israel and will now attack from Iranian soil against any Israeli aggression,” said Hossein Salami, commander in chief of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.   

Iran’s attack signaled that Israel’s longtime strategy of deterrence—inflicting a very heavy toll in response to an attack—isn’t working. But a different kind of deterrence proved very effective. 

All but a handful of the more than 300 drones and missiles Iran fired were shot down by Israel, the United States, the United Kingdom, France, and—somewhat surprisingly—Jordan, whose leaders have criticized Israel’s war in Gaza.  Most impressively, Israel and its allies thwarted more than 100 ballistic missiles, which travel at the speed of sound. The sole casualty was a 7-year-old Bedouin girl who was hospitalized with serious injuries.  

Iran telegraphed its attack well ahead of time, which gave Israel and its allies time to prepare. Still, Tehran seemed embarrassed and surprised that almost none of its missiles landed. With no scenes of destruction in Israel to broadcast, the Iranian government showed footage from wildfires in Chile on state TV as fake proof of the blows it struck against the enemy.

Israel says it will retaliate for Iran’s aerial assault.  When it does, it must do so without the help of the United States, which has made it clear it would not participate in any offensive Israeli response against Iran. President Biden reportedly urged Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to “take the win.” 

A key question before the Israeli war cabinet as it decides how and when to strike back is whether its response should match Iran’s intentions or the actual damage that resulted. A response commensurate with Iran’s intentions to cause death and destruction would be in line with Israel’s longtime strategy of deterrence but risks inflaming a regional conflict. A more limited response in line with the minimal damage that resulted from Iran’s attack could signal weakness to a newly emboldened Iran.

Iran appears to have calculated that Israel can’t risk an extreme response because it doesn’t want to fight a two-front war in both Gaza and Iran.  Tehran appeared to be preparing for Israeli retaliation in Syria, where its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has a significant presence. Tehran has begun evacuating senior officers in the IRGC and Hizbollah from sites in Syria, the Wall Street Journal reported. Mid-ranking officers are shifting from their original locations in the country.

Update: Israeli missiles have hit a site in Iran, ABC News reported late on Thursday, citing a U.S. official, days after Iran launched a drone strike on Israel in response to an attack at the Iranian embassy in Syria. Reuters reported that “Iran's Fars news agency said an explosion were heard at an airport in the Iranian city of Isafahan but the cause was not immediately known. Several Iranian nuclear sites are located in Isfahan province, including Natanz, centerpiece of Iran’s uranium enrichment program.”