SpyTalk

Share this post

Get Smart: 5 Ways to Read an Intelligence Report

www.spytalk.co

Get Smart: 5 Ways to Read an Intelligence Report

Retired CIA officer Ron Marks advises a new Hill aide not to be wowed by secrets

Ronald A. Marks III
Apr 13, 2021
8
Share this post

Get Smart: 5 Ways to Read an Intelligence Report

www.spytalk.co

Share

I have had to deal with intelligence reports as both a producer and as a user for nearly 40 years. There’s a lot of mystique, misunderstanding and controversy about what “intelligence” is and what it can—and cannot—do for you. So, allow me to give you five basic, hard-earned rules about dealing with reports turned out by the intelligence wings of the CIA and other national security agencies. 

First of all, do remember it’s analysis, not crystal ball gazing. Never in my long history with the CIA  has there been one perfect piece of information that tells the whole story. The job is about assembling pieces of information, trying to weigh their value,  and trying to make sense of them. 

This means Intelligence analysts estimate. They approximate. They speak in confidence levels. They sometimes get it right. They sometimes  get it wrong. And the language that appears to hedge their judgments—”likely,” “unlikely,” “very likely,” etc.—is meant to reflect that uncertainty. Their reports are no…

Keep reading with a 7-day free trial

Subscribe to SpyTalk to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.

Already a paid subscriber? Sign in
© 2023 Jeff Stein
Privacy ∙ Terms ∙ Collection notice
Start WritingGet the app
Substack is the home for great writing