Can Threats of a US-Backed Ukraine Insurgency Deter a Russian invasion?
Prospects for a guerrilla war in Donbas and Crimea are dim, analyst Stephen R. Weissman says
U.S. officials, including members of Congress, have warned President Vladimir Putin that if Russia invades Ukraine, America and its allies will help Ukrainians mount an armed resistance. To amplify their point, the U.S. has been expediting shipments of Stinger anti-aircraft missiles and other weapons to the beleaguered Ukrainians. CIA and Special Forces paramilitary teams meanwhile, have reportedly been helping prepare their army and citizen militias for the kind of long haul gueriilla war not seen since in Europe since the Nazi occupations of World War Two.
Is it real, or a bluff? Whatever, officials need to stop and reflect upon the real historical experience of recent CIA-supported insurgencies in Afghanistan, Libya and Syria. They should further take into account the challenging political and cultural environment facing the U.S. and its allies in the areas of Ukraine that Russia would most likely occupy.
According to the New York Times, in late December the chairman of the Joint …
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